Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $131,652$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121,532.7}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(121,532.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,300$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,988.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,988.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,076$ on 2020-05-22

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $154,500$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(2.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{149,204.3}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(149,204.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,276$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(637 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,238.4}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,238.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,113$ on 2020-05-22

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $19,564$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(34.3 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,020.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 103.2)}}\) (asimptote \(89,020.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $138$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(3.33 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(8.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{240.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(240.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,911$ on 2020-05-22

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,690$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(2.89 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,480.4}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,480.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $279$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(53.8 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{268.7}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 27.0)}}\) (asimptote \(268.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,496$ on 2020-05-22

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $27,892$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(423 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,056.5}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 77.0)}}\) (asimptote \(35,056.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $241$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(11.4 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{264.3}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(264.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,853$ on 2020-05-22

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $927$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(216 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{897.2}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 28.7)}}\) (asimptote \(897.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(6.76 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16.7}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 14.9)}}\) (asimptote \(16.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $349$ on 2020-05-22

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $67,719$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,539.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 65.5)}}\) (asimptote \(103,539.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $364$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(35 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{502.6}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(502.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,352$ on 2020-05-22

Philippines⮸

Population $109,581,078$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,597$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,624.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(14,624.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $857$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(102 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{898.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(898.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,648$ on 2020-05-22

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Korea, South recovered 91%
Israel recovered 75%
Uzbekistan recovered 62%
Turkey recovered 58%
Georgia recovered 41%
Singapore recovered 16%
United Arab Emirates recovered 5%

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,165$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(5.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,573.2}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 15.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,573.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $266$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(70.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{262.4}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(262.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $705$ on 2020-05-22

Uzbekistan⮸

Population $33,469,203$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,028$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(444 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,792.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 30.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,792.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(4.69 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 13.7)}}\) (asimptote \(13.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $523$ on 2020-05-22

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $723$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(76.7 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{743.0}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(743.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(2.52 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(15.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $216$ on 2020-05-22

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,426$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(162 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,582.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 93.9)}}\) (asimptote \(31,582.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(4.03 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(25.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,408$ on 2020-05-22