Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $131,652$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(1.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121,532.7}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(121,532.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,300$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,988.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,988.3\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,076$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $154,500$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(2.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{149,204.3}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(149,204.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,276$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(637 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,238.4}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,238.4\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,113$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $19,564$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(34.3 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,020.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 103.2)}}\) (asimptote \(89,020.3\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $138$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(3.33 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(8.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{240.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(240.4\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,911$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,690$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(2.89 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,480.4}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,480.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $279$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(53.8 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{268.7}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 27.0)}}\) (asimptote \(268.7\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,496$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $27,892$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(423 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,056.5}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 77.0)}}\) (asimptote \(35,056.5\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $241$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(11.4 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{264.3}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(264.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,853$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $927$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(216 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{897.2}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 28.7)}}\) (asimptote \(897.2\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(6.76 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16.7}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 14.9)}}\) (asimptote \(16.7\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $349$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $67,719$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,539.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 65.5)}}\) (asimptote \(103,539.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $364$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(35 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{502.6}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(502.6\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,352$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,597$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,624.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(14,624.3\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $857$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(102 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{898.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(898.8\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,648$ on 2020-05-22